Kelly Stewart of Bleacher Report and the Kelly and Murray Show joins me for a wide ranging conversation on football betting. She starts with how she moved from Manhattan, Kansas to Las Vegas to start a sports betting career. Then Kelly describes how analytics informs her betting. Finally, we dig into the NFL and win totals.

In making sports predictions, we look for variables that are predictive. For example, we ask whether this variable has a strong correlation from season to season. Usually, this relates to an underlying skill. However, some variables, such as a player's 3 point shooting percentage, do not follow the usual rules. This episode explores predictability vs skill and provides a framework to study the latter.