Ed Feng breaks down the 2021 NCAA tournament bracket by a surprising metric: the preseason AP poll. He explains why this poll from months ago still matters. Then he looks at Gonzaga's potential toughest opponent, the region that might be wide open, and the toughest Round of 32 games for 1 seeds.
Edward Egros takes a unique look at the bracket by asking these questions:
He ends with a team that could win the tournament despite a lack of history.
The Power Rank provides data driven predictions for you to fill out your bracket. Are you going to use these predictions in every game? Ed Feng looks at how humans make predictions amidst randomness, and how this impacts your 2021 March Madness bracket.
While Baylor has been the best team in the Big 12, the conference does feature other strong teams that can make a run in the 2021 NCAA tournament. Edward Egros breaks down Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas and other teams from the Big 12.
In previous episode of Bracket Wisdom, Edward Egros talked about not getting into a large pool. In this episode, Ed Feng discusses how a favorites strategy works best for a small pool. However, you can do better by thinking contrarian for an intermediate size pool.
Gonzaga started the year #1 in the preseason AP poll, and they have gone undefeated despite a difficult out of conference schedule. Edward Egros looks at the history of Mark Few's program, profiles the players on the current team and tries to find any argument against Gonzaga.
Top teams in the strong Big Ten conference inevitably rack up some losses. Ed Feng explains how his strength of schedule adjustments work to accurately rate these teams. Then he previews Illinois, Ohio State and Iowa, three teams that can win the NCAA tournament.
Michigan has made a surprising surge in Juwan Howard's second year. Ed Feng looks at the traits of a Howard team after two seasons of data. Then he talks about the reason Michigan has played so well this season.
Can Baylor bounce back from a COVID stoppage? How has coach Scott Drew built this team that has won the Big 12 regular season and looks like a 1 seed? Edward Egros breaks down Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell and Baylor.
Two years ago, the NCAA tournament selection committee adopted the NET rankings to select and seed teams. No one liked the old RPI system, but is NET any better? Stanford PhD Ed Feng explains the ideas of machine learning and Team Value Index that go into NET and how it has impacted seeding.
Kelvin Sampson's teams play great defense, and Houston has a star in Quinton Grimes. Can the Cougars make a deep run in March? Edward Egros breaks down Houston in this episode of Bracket Wisdom.
If you get this wrong, you might as well light your entry fee on fire. Edward Egros examines the long odds of winning large pools, and provides concrete advice about the size of pool you should enter.
Live by the 3, die by the 3. Alabama likes to chuck it from the cheat seats. But will this prevent them from winning March Madness? Edward Egros breaks down head coach Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide for the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
Part 1 looked at the difference between predictability and skill. For NBA players, 3 point shooting percentage is not predictive but a skill. In Part 2, Ed looks at the skill in 3 point shooting for college basketball teams. This leads to a discussion about using 3 point shooting percentage to evaluate the top teams that can win March Madness.
In college basketball, 3 point field goal percentage is not predictive. This means that a team like Baylor that shoots 44% from 3 will see regression to the college basketball average of 34%. However, this feels wrong, as 3 point shooting seems like a skill. In this episode, Ed Feng explains how to isolate skill from luck in 3 point shooting.