Rufus Peabody, a professional sports bettor, joins me to discuss how he uses analytics to make better bets. He talks about his Massey Peabody model for making college football and NFL predictions. We talk about teams like Wisconsin and Michigan in college football that have moved rapidly from their preseason projections. We also discuss Miami in the NFL, a most difficult team to quantify. Finally, Rufus talks about the data that goes into NFL player model.
Preston Johnson, a professional sports bettor and ESPN personality, joins me to talk college football and the NFL. He tells us about the two sets of numbers he uses in his football handicapping. This informs his positions on Michigan, Syracuse and SMU in college football and Denver and Green Bay in the NFL. Preston also talks about profitable versus unprofitable teasers in the NFL.
Dr. Eric Eager is a data scientist at Pro Football Focus pushing the frontiers of football analytics. He tells us whether pass rush or coverage matters more on pass defense. When the defense rushes the passer, Dr. Eager explains whether the offensive line or quarterback plays a bigger role in reducing that pressure. Then he explains the new player based model he uses to predict both college football and NFL games. Finally, we talk about the 2019 NFL season and the team that might become Jacksonville 3.0.
Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders joins me for a wide ranging discussion on the NFL. He tells us about the most important frontiers in football analytics, which leads to a discussion of which defensive stats are least stable from year to year. Then we get into an overrated team, or Jacksonville 2.0. Finally, he tells us about an NFC North team that might surprise you.