Matt Waldman, creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP) and senior writer at Footballguys, joins the show to talk about the 2021 NFL Draft. In creating the RSP, he watches hours of tape, which gives him a strong take on the QB that should be the 3rd overall pick. In addition, he describes why a surprise QB is rated better than Zach Wilson, the presumed 2nd pick in the draft. Finally, he tells some great stories about the reach of his RSP.
Julian Packer, a professional sports bettor and founder of BetStamp, joins the show to discuss how to bet props in basketball and football. He describes how he uses his software background to model props. Then he talks about how he avoids getting his bets limited by sports books, a common problem for winning bettors. Finally, he tells us about BetStamp, his app for tracking bets.
Colin Davy, data scientist at Facebook and two time winner of the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Hackathon, joins me to talk about his custom golf model for the Masters. He describes how he uses Markov Chains to predict the outcome of golf and how this differs from the Strokes Gained approach. He predicts which golfers have the highest probability to win the 2021 Masters. Finally, Colin talks about how he used data to become a Jeopardy champion.
Jordan Sperber, analytics expert and founder of Hoop Vision, joins me to discuss college basketball and the Final Four. He describes how a study on match ups in college basketball led him to early success in analytics. Then he shows how he combines analytics and strategy in breaking down Houston, Baylor and Gonzaga.
Ed Feng breaks down the 2021 NCAA tournament bracket by a surprising metric: the preseason AP poll. He explains why this poll from months ago still matters. Then he looks at Gonzaga's potential toughest opponent, the region that might be wide open, and the toughest Round of 32 games for 1 seeds.
Edward Egros takes a unique look at the bracket by asking these questions:
He ends with a team that could win the tournament despite a lack of history.
The Power Rank provides data driven predictions for you to fill out your bracket. Are you going to use these predictions in every game? Ed Feng looks at how humans make predictions amidst randomness, and how this impacts your 2021 March Madness bracket.
While Baylor has been the best team in the Big 12, the conference does feature other strong teams that can make a run in the 2021 NCAA tournament. Edward Egros breaks down Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas and other teams from the Big 12.
In previous episode of Bracket Wisdom, Edward Egros talked about not getting into a large pool. In this episode, Ed Feng discusses how a favorites strategy works best for a small pool. However, you can do better by thinking contrarian for an intermediate size pool.
Gonzaga started the year #1 in the preseason AP poll, and they have gone undefeated despite a difficult out of conference schedule. Edward Egros looks at the history of Mark Few's program, profiles the players on the current team and tries to find any argument against Gonzaga.
Top teams in the strong Big Ten conference inevitably rack up some losses. Ed Feng explains how his strength of schedule adjustments work to accurately rate these teams. Then he previews Illinois, Ohio State and Iowa, three teams that can win the NCAA tournament.
Michigan has made a surprising surge in Juwan Howard's second year. Ed Feng looks at the traits of a Howard team after two seasons of data. Then he talks about the reason Michigan has played so well this season.
Can Baylor bounce back from a COVID stoppage? How has coach Scott Drew built this team that has won the Big 12 regular season and looks like a 1 seed? Edward Egros breaks down Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell and Baylor.
Two years ago, the NCAA tournament selection committee adopted the NET rankings to select and seed teams. No one liked the old RPI system, but is NET any better? Stanford PhD Ed Feng explains the ideas of machine learning and Team Value Index that go into NET and how it has impacted seeding.
Kelvin Sampson's teams play great defense, and Houston has a star in Quinton Grimes. Can the Cougars make a deep run in March? Edward Egros breaks down Houston in this episode of Bracket Wisdom.
If you get this wrong, you might as well light your entry fee on fire. Edward Egros examines the long odds of winning large pools, and provides concrete advice about the size of pool you should enter.
Live by the 3, die by the 3. Alabama likes to chuck it from the cheat seats. But will this prevent them from winning March Madness? Edward Egros breaks down head coach Nate Oats and the Crimson Tide for the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
Part 1 looked at the difference between predictability and skill. For NBA players, 3 point shooting percentage is not predictive but a skill. In Part 2, Ed looks at the skill in 3 point shooting for college basketball teams. This leads to a discussion about using 3 point shooting percentage to evaluate the top teams that can win March Madness.
In college basketball, 3 point field goal percentage is not predictive. This means that a team like Baylor that shoots 44% from 3 will see regression to the college basketball average of 34%. However, this feels wrong, as 3 point shooting seems like a skill. In this episode, Ed Feng explains how to isolate skill from luck in 3 point shooting.
Edward Egros takes over hosting duties to interview Ed Feng, the usual host of The Football Analytics Show and founder of The Power Rank. Ed talks about the changes he has made in his algorithms during the pandemic, how he got into sports analytics and why context matters even more during this time. Then he gets into March Madness, and topics include the analytics and strategy behind how to win your pool. Finally, Ed and Edward debate the virtues of the game ending buzzer in basketball.
Adam Stanco, hoops expert and host of the Rejecting the Screen podcast, joins the show to talk college basketball. He tells us whether the numbers are right in having Gonzaga and Baylor as the two best teams in the nation. Then we talk Michigan and the NBA draft stock of Hunter Dickinson. Adam gives his thoughts on Duke and Kentucky before talking about other teams that could win the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor, joins the show to talk about the Super Bowl. He describes his NFL model and what it says about the spread for Tampa Bay vs Kansas City. Then he discusses his process for predicting player props and what his numbers say about the Super Bowl.
Matt Freedman of the Action Network, a fantasy sports expert, joins the show to talk about the Super Bowl and player prop bets. He gives his 3 top tips for how to approach the prop market, and then talks about a few bets that he likes. Then we talk about the game between Tampa Bay and Kansas City in terms of the spread and total. Finally, Matt tells us how he started doing an Ask Me Anything on Twitter every day.
Drew Dinsick, an NFL bettor who goes by Whale Capper on Twitter, joins the show to discuss the NFL. He describes how he uses his background in earthquake engineering to build an NFL predictive model, and how the inputs to the model have changed over the years. Then we get into the Conference Championship games. Tampa Bay visits Green Bay, and Drew lays out how the game will likely evolve. Buffalo visits Kansas City, and he identifies the injury that everyone should be talking about, not the one everyone is talking about. We end with a discussion of Mexican food, rocket science and closing line value.
Chris Andrews, the director of the sportsbook at the South Point Casino in Las Vegas, joins me to talk about the NFL. He describes how he sets the market, and how numbers play a role. Then we dig into the four Divisional Playoff games:
We end with a discussion of poker, books and Winston Churchill.