The preseason is the time for high expectations in college football. However, not all teams live up to the hype. Using analytics and context, host Ed Feng identifies 3 overrated college football teams for 2019.
Host Ed Feng goes through 5 games based on predictions he usually saves for paying members of The Power Rank, his site for more accurate football predictions. These predictions allow him to dig deeper into the Clemson Tigers, the Wisconsin Badgers and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Colts QB Andrew Luck shocked the football world by retiring this weekend. To determine the effect of his absence on Indianapolis, host Ed Feng uses his NFL preseason rankings based on market win totals.
While Oklahoma and Texas dominate the headlines, Iowa State might be the most intriguing team in the Big 12. Host Ed Feng breaks down QB Brock Purdy and the pass defense by using a little known fact about the official statistics. He ends by ranking the top 3 Big 12 teams by The Power Rank preseason model.
Seattle had a solid 10-6 season in 2018 and made the playoffs. However, the Seahawks have a serious problem. Host Ed Feng looks at their offense based on research on how running the ball sets up play action.
It's hard enough to win a division title in college football. It gets even harder when your team has the most difficult schedule. Based on division win probabilities, host Ed Feng identifies 3 college football teams getting screwed by the injustice of schedule.
Despite going down to Ohio State as the favorite last season, Michigan lost a heart breaking 62-39 game. Host Ed Feng explores the hidden side of the game based on modern football analytics. Then he projects whether Michigan can finally catch Ohio State in 2019.
NFL teams run the ball more when they're up late in games. So it makes sense that 100 yard rushers on winning teams get lots of their yards late in games. Host Ed Feng dug into the data to test this hypothesis.
Why preview a Nebraska team that went 4-8 last year? First, they were better than their record in 2018, and looking at their season shows us the perils of small sample size. Second, Nebraska has interesting upside for 2019.
Predictive analytics is a never ending game of distinguishing skill from luck. Ed Feng determines which statistics reflect the most skill for NFL quarterbacks by looking at how each statistic has evolved over time. This ends with a discussion of Derek Carr and Jared Goff.
Over the next two weeks, Ed Feng brings you 10 episodes of spoken word episodes to get you ready for the 2019 football season.
Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight joins me for a wide ranging conversation on the NFL. He tells us why he considers himself an analyst more than a data scientist. Then we get into play action and whether running it more times reduces its effectiveness. Finally, we discuss the 2019 prospects for Oakland, Chicago and Arizona.
Bill Connelly of ESPN joins me for a wide ranging conversation on college football. He tells us which parts of his preseason model gets broken down into offense and defense, and which doesn't. We discuss whether any team can catch Alabama and Clemson in 2019. Finally, Bill breaks down the contenders in the Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12. Our apologies, as the audio quality is not has high as usual due to technical difficulties.