Mike Goodman, soccer analytics writer at FiveThirtyEight and other major media outlets, joins me to talk about the World Cup. We begin by discussing the evolution of soccer analytics from goals to expected goals. Then he breaks down the top contenders to win the 2018 World Cup. Finally, he explains how expected goals casts doubt on the roster construction of Spain and Belgium.
David Purdum, writer for ESPN, joins me to discuss the Supreme Court decision that opens the door for states to allow sports betting. We talk about how this impacts the NFL, the NCAA and online book makers. David also offers his bold prediction that will result from legalizing sports betting. To finish, we get into creativity lessons from musician Jack White.
To predict the 2018 NFL Draft, I take a wisdom of crowds approach and aggregate data from 25 mock drafts. Last year, this predictor was more accurate than all but one of the constituent mock drafts. In this episode, I discuss where the top quarterbacks go in the first round, who will take Saquon Barkley and possible improvements to the model.
NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund joins me in a wide ranging conversation. She talks about her video study on NFL linemen, the most difficult players to research. We discuss the Cleveland Browns, their problems and what they will do in the 2018 draft. She also tells us about Next Gen data and her new project for the 2018 season.
Colin Davy, director of data science at The Action Network, joins me to discuss sports analytics and predictions for the Masters. We start with the methods he has developed to rank tennis players and now applies to golf. Then Colin tells us whether a large or small playbook leads to better offense in football. Finally, we talk about the Masters, which includes the difficulty in predicting Tiger Woods and the one golfer to keep an eye on this weekend.
Adam Stanco, producer at the Pac-12 Network and hoops expert, joins me to talk March Madness. We focus the show on team that can win the 2018 tournament, as the choice of champion is the most important for winning your pool. This second part covers Michigan State, North Carolina, Kansas, Michigan and two other teams Adam finds intriguing.
Adam Stanco, producer at the Pac-12 Network and hoops expert, joins me to talk March Madness. We focus the show on teams that can win the 2018 tournament, as the choice of champion is the most important for winning your pool. This first part goes over Villanova, Virginia, Duke and Cincinnati.
Live by the three, die by the three. The conventional wisdom says that teams that shoot a lot of three point shots have high variability in their performance. This makes it difficult to win the NCAA tournament. In 2014, I did some research that suggested 3 point shooting teams do not win the tournament. However, college basketball has changed in the last 4 years, and we revisit this advice.
In this special episode, we tell the story behind predicting March Madness. The tournament might seem random, but there is a good reason for this public perception. In reality, the tournament is predictable in key ways, and this can help you win your March Madness pool. Join us on this journey from skeptic to winner.
Ken Pomeroy, a pioneer in college basketball analytics and founder of kenpom.com, joins me for a wide ranging discussion. He tells us how his college basketball rankings work, what aspects of 3 pointers a team controls on offense and defense, and how predicting the weather prepared him for college basketball.
In this 7 minute episode, Ed Feng previews the Super Bowl by comparing Philadelphia to recent team that played in the Super Bowl. In making this comparison, he digs into Philadelphia's pass numbers with QB Nick Foles, and New England's pass defense the latter part of the season.
Brian Burke, Senior Analytics Specialist at ESPN, joins me for a wide ranging football conversation. We discuss the 4th down study he did at his old site Advanced Football Analytics. He tells us how to project Jimmy Garappolo on a limited sample size and his prediction for the Super Bowl. We end with his favorite book and the value of reading the news.
Evan Silva, senior NFL editor at RotoWorld, joins me to discuss the analytics in breaking down the NFL conference championship games. He tells us about the one weakness in Jacksonville's defense that New England could exploit, as well as the change on Minnesota's offense last week that might impact the game at Philadelphia. After the interview, host Ed Feng tells the story of the unsung hero on Jacksonville's defense.
Professor Cade Massey of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania joins the show to talk NFL playoffs. We discuss the most predictive factor in the Massey-Peabody model, do a deep dive into Atlanta's defense, and how New England's defense excels in some ways yet fails in others.
John Ewing from Sports Insights and The Action Network joins me to talk football analytics. We discuss predictions for the NFL Wildcard Playoff games as well as two Super Bowl futures. Then we talk about the hidden factor that can affect the total in the college football championship game between Georgia and Alabama. After the interview, I talk about my spread prediction for this championship game and the inherent uncertainty in making predictions.
Dave Mason from BetOnline.ag joins me to talk about college football and the NFL. He tells us how his sports book sets market each week and the advantages of putting out lines before others. He talks about how NFL results have impacted his company this season and the importance of Bitcoin. After the interview, I tell a story that answers the question: what is sports analytics good for?
When host Ed Feng was doing his research on how to win your college football bowl pool, he realized the ideas also apply to NFL pick 'em pools. In this episode, he shows how to win your NFL pool this week by picking the winners in games and assigning confidence points. This is done through his analytics. Then he goes through his procedure for finding contrarian games for people in larger pools.
Ed Feng explains his quantitative research on college football bowl pools. Based on 4 years of data, he explains why there is value in entering bowl pools. He then explains which types of bowl pools to enter. You should avoid pools in which randomness decreases your win probability. Then you should consider using contrarian strategies, or fading the choices of the public. However, this only works in certain pools. Ed closes with a few market based NFL predictions for teams with quarterback injuries.
Dave Bartoo, college football number cruncher that goes by CFB Matrix, joins me for a wide ranging conversation. He tells us why he likes to be wrong. We break down the 4 big championship games with college football playoff implications. Finally, he tells us the significance of Fresno State for the college football playoff. The Football Analytics Show is brought to you by The Power Rank (@thepowerrank on Twitter).
Which match up matters most in Alabama at Ohio State? Can Georgia Tech upset Georgia at home? How can Michigan stay in the game against Ohio State? Ed Feng breaks down the analytics behind these games.
Peter Jennings, two time world champion in Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) and cofounder of Fantasy Labs, joins me to discuss analytics in DFS. He tells us how his poker background helps him get started, and what times of year you'll find the most value in DFS. He also contrasts different sports and which ones require subjective adjustments from watching the games. After the interview, host Ed Feng discusses his new research on college football bowl pools and whether there is any value in these contests.
Kevin Cole, data scientist and founder of Predictive Football, joins me to talk about his points added model for NFL skill players. He explains how this new method considers how far a pass travels in the air, and how it evaluates the differences between quarterbacks and running backs. We also discuss Bills QB Tyrod Taylor and the 2018 QB class based on some of his new work. After the interview, host Ed Feng has his own segment on the total in Oklahoma State at Iowa State, and the story behind why its so low.
The first part of the show assigns a point value to player absences such as Ezekiel Elliott and Aaron Rodgers in the NFL. The second part talks about The Power Rank's probability that each college football team makes the playoff. There's a story behind why Penn State has the highest probability. Finally, host Ed Feng answers questions from listeners.
Bob Stoll, founder of Dr. Bob Sports and a true pioneer in using numbers in handicapping, joins the show. He talks about the analytics of his college football model and how he makes adjustments for situations and injuries. He also tells us about the machine learning methods of his new NFL model and gives us some college football teams to track based on this numbers. After the interview, host Ed Feng has his own segment on his primary Super Bowl contender. Follow Ed and The Football Analytics Show on Twitter @thepowerrank.
Dan Frabrizio, the founder of Sports Insights, joins the show for wide ranging conversation on sports analytics and betting. He tells us why he started Sports Insights back in 1999 and how to get an edge with reverse line movement. Then we discuss the NFL in 2017 and the recent acquisition of Sports Insights by The Chernin Group, a large media company. After the interview, host Ed Feng has a segment on the randomness of explosive plays, and Michigan at Penn State. Follow the Football Analytics Show on Twitter @thepowerrank.