Benjamin Robinson uses the wisdom of crowds and mock drafts to predict the NFL draft. He describes his methods and tells us whether the "experts" are better than others at predicting the draft. Then we discuss quarterbacks and Tua Tagovailoa might go despite his injury. Finally, Benjamin gives us a surprise prediction for the 2020 NFL draft.
Cliff Sargent helps you find a great book through his YouTube channel Better Than Food. He joins host Ed Feng to talk about his story and some great books. For those that like football and data, Cliff offers some recommendations from authors such as Leonard Gardner, Tom Kristensen and Yukio Mishima.
Suppose West Virginia is elite at offense rebounding but Iowa State is awful at defensive rebounding. Can we use this to make a more accurate prediction? Host Ed Feng digs in by first explaining the four factors of basketball. Then he describes the work of Jordan Sperber on matchups in college basketball.
Ever wondered how to make a college basketball prediction based on efficiency? Host Ed Feng digs into points per possession and how to estimate this quantity from the box score. Then he gets into the least squares algorithm used to adjust for strength of schedule. This leads to the college basketball rankings on Sports Reference and kenpom.com. Finally, he talks about going from rankings to a prediction for a game.
Michigan State might not seem like championship contender given their record. They lost 6 of 10 games at one point this season. However, a surprising predictor of tournament performance likes Michigan State. Host Ed Feng breaks down the team on offense and defense and explains their poor record because of an exceptional Big Ten conference.
You got the memo on using analytics to predict the NCAA tournament, and you're ready to win. Not so fast. If you get this one thing wrong, you might as well light your entry fee on fire. Host Ed Feng explains through an analogy with Steph Curry.
The word parity has been used to describe college basketball this season. But does it actually apply? And if so, does it imply even more Madness in the tournament? In this first episode of the Bracket Wisdom series, host Ed Feng compares win probabilities for this year to the past few seasons. He gets into his latest methods for predicting college basketball, and discusses Dayton, San Diego State, Arizona and Michigan State along the way.
Adam Stanco, producer at the Pac-12 Network and hoops expert, joins me for a wide ranging college basketball conversation. He describes the landscape for the 2020 NCAA tournament and determines whether a mid-major like Dayton or San Diego State could win. He also talks about Michigan State, Arizona and Seton Hall among other teams.
Ken Pomeroy, college basketball analytics guru, joins the show to talk about his work. He discusses the statistic that he uses to evaluate home court (no, it's not points). Then Ken tells us about his favorite research project out of the many he's done over the years. Finally, we discuss teams that can win the 2020 NCAA tournament and whether mid-major programs like Dayton and San Diego State belong on this list.
To give yourself the best odds of winning your March Madness pool, you need the right strategy. Host Ed Feng discusses how this worked in last year's tournament.
Nick Kostos, sports betting personality at Sports Illustrated, joins me to discuss the Super Bowl. He begins with his journey from writing articles at Bleacher Report to CBS to videos at Sports Illustrated. Then we break down the Super Bowl match up between San Francisco and Kansas City. Nick also shares his thoughts on social media, food, books and the important things in life.
Host Ed Feng breaks down the Super Bowl between San Francisco and Kansas City. He uses snap data to analyze match ups in this game, and discusses an important factor that could swing the game. He ends with a prediction based on his analytics at ThePowerRank.com.
Bob Stoll, a pioneer in using football analytics for betting, joins me to talk NFL analytics. He describes his model and how he incorporates statistics like air yards and QB pressures. Then Bob tells us about the surprising resource he uses for injury adjustments. Finally, we discuss the conference championship games: Tennessee at Kansas City and Green Bay at San Francisco.
JJ Zachariason, content guru at FanDuel and numberFire, joins me to talk analytics and the NFL Divisional Playoffs. He tells us about the surprising statistic for college running backs that he uses to project NFL performance. Then we get into the 4 playoff games. Among other insights, he discusses the situation that makes San Francisco even more potent and the truth about Kansas City's defense.
New Orleans might be the most complete NFL team on both sides of the ball. Host Ed Feng breaks down this team and their odds to win the Super Bowl.
Should you fade teams with interim coaches? Host Ed Feng looks at the data on bowl games with one interim coach.
Michigan plays Alabama in the Citrus Bowl. Host Ed Feng digs into the story behind these two teams this season and gives a prediction for the game.
You know to use data and analytics to predict bowl games. But what about another resource, one that doesn't involve data from the current season? Host Ed Feng tells you about a resource and what it says about Washington State vs Air Force.
To win your bowl pool, follow a two step process. Host Ed Feng first discusses which type of bowl pool to enter. Then he describes how to use a favorites versus contrarian strategy based on pool size.
Chris Andrews, director of the South Point sports book in Las Vegas, joins me to discuss his book Then One Day... and football numbers. He discusses his general approach to bookmaking, and how he deals with sharp bettors. He gives a great example of setting the line with Ohio State vs Clemson in the college football playoff. Chris talks about whether "momentum" is useful in either college football or the NFL. Finally, he tells a few of the stories that make his book such a great read.
Rob Pizzola, a professional sports bettor, joins me for a wide ranging conversation on the NFL. He talks about his team and played based models for the NFL. Then Rob discusses how he deals with fast rising teams like Baltimore. Finally, he gives some contrarian opinions on NFL QBs and takes a broad look at the sports betting landscape.
Host Ed Feng breaks down Ohio State at Michigan, Wisconsin at Minnesota and Alabama at Auburn. He ends by discussing two books and a YouTube channel that have captivated him lately.
Michael Salfino, whose work can be found on FiveThirtyEight, The Athletic and the Wall Street Journal, joins me to discuss the NFL. He tells us how initiated the Massey-Peabody football rankings. Then he explains the strategy for stopping Lamar Jackson that a team has yet to use in 2019. Finally, we discuss a key statistic for evaluating NFL teams and how this impacts his Super Bowl contenders.
Host Ed Feng discuss his results for the chance that each team makes the college football playoff. He looks deeper at Clemson, the Pac-12 contenders Utah and Oregon, and Minnesota.
Dr. Ben Baldwin, writer for The Athletic that covers the Seattle Seahawks, joins me to discuss NFL football analytics. He tells us why he goes by "new-age analytical" on Twitter. Then he explains his work on whether running the ball sets up play action, and how this has impacted Seattle's play calling in 2019. He then breaks down the Monday night game with Seattle at San Francisco. We end with a discussion on Aaron Rodgers, the Rams and the Big Data Bowl.