Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and founder of the Unexpected Points newsletter and podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Adjusted game scores and future predictions (3:45). Will Levis (10:24). How Buffalo at Cincinnati explains his metrics (13:20). Cleveland at Baltimore (20:00). Houston at Cincinnati (29:50). San Francisco at Jacksonville (39:20). Detroit at Los Angeles Chargers (43:02). The best team in the NFL (45:22).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Eddie Walls, a professional sports bettor who also works with Right Angle Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Explosive plays (4:38). Will Levis at Kentucky (7:40). Running clock changes in college football (14:00). 3 college football bets (15:45). How to find college football value in November (20:30). His NBA betting process (33:27). Advice for someone looking to bet the NBA (41:25). Betting daily sports like the NBA (45:55).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Connor Allen, the sports betting manager at 4for4 and host of the Move The Line podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How his NFL handicapping process involves analytics and watching games (6:34). An NFL player receiving yards prop (16:22). A week 8 NFL side (19:58). Desmond Ridder (24:20). Cincinnati at San Francisco (26:22). Houston at Carolina (28:36). Miami's defense (36:25). A surprise NFL prediction (40:00). Kansas City Chiefs (45:38). Seattle Seahawks (46:40).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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After 7 weeks of the season, we now have some robust data with which to evaluate college football teams. This episode looks at whether to trust success rate or yards per play more and then digs into 3 teams. This has big implications for a huge Big Ten game and the future of a conference that will not exist next season.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Rob Pizzola, a professional sports bettor that uses quantitative methods to bet the NFL, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The new data Rob and his team work with in 2023 (5:20). NFL player prop betting (9:48). New England at Las Vegas, NFL Week 6 bet (22:26). Minnesota at Chicago, NFL Week 6 bet (23:50). San Francisco destroys Dallas in Week 5, signal or noise? (31:10). Los Angeles Rams (37:43).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Fabian Sommer, a professional NFL bettor, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Fabian's process for handicapping the NFL (2:17). Evaluating coordinators, Detroit OC Ben Johnson in particular (9:08). A bet on Houston at Atlanta, NFL Week 5 (15:45). If and when to get off your preseason prior (26:37). Cincinnati Bengals (29:00). Indianapolis Colts and Anthony Richardson (34:33). Chicago Bears (36:34). Handicapping rookie QB Aiden O'Connell (40:48). Dallas at San Francisco (43:20). Kansas City (46:09).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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As an analytics person, you know better than to judge based on a small sample size. But do you know why this is so difficult?

This episode digs into the cognitive science behind your tenuous relationship with randomness. I hope it feels like a short audiobook, but not boring.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Tanner Buzick, the Director of Analytics at Dr. Bob Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His quantitative approach to betting the NFL (6:24). Carolina at Seattle (13:22). Nick Chubb, Tennessee at Cleveland (21:40). A surprise prediction and bet for the 2023 NFL season (26:20). Advice for breaking into the betting world (29:20).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Mike Craig, a professional sports bettor who also works with Right Angle Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How to get into sports betting in 2023 (5:35). Handicapping college football (8:02). FBS vs FCS games and whether they matter in handicapping (14:42). A college football bet (20:18). Colorado (23:02). Penn State at Illinois (33:12). A surprising prediction for the 2023 season (38:18). A team to fade (44:03). The state of sports betting (48:18).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Before the 2022 season, Dan Hanzus of NFL.com had Denver 8th in his power rankings. The Broncos finished the season 5-12.

I used his opinion in my best NFL predictions last year. Even in hindsight, I don't regret it. Let me explain in this episode.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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How to bet the Buffalo Bills in 2023, courtesy of the brilliant software tools at Unabated. The concept of a no hold market plays a critical role in the analysis.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Adam Chernoff of Right Angle Sports joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How the NFL preseason impacts his analysis (5:22). Houston Texans (9:00). Las Vegas Raiders (12:15). The Right Angle Sports NFL team (15:05). NFL props (19:17). Week 1 teaser bet (24:55). Atlanta Falcons and total football (28:30). Arizona Cardinals (38:42). Dallas Cowboys (42:10). The Simple Handicap daily podcast (51:44).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Dr. Eric Eager, Vice President at Sumer Sports and football analytics expert, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Offensive line as a weak link system (5:00). Green Bay Packers (12:04). NFL preseason models (13:53). Buffalo Bills and run pass option (19:22). Minnesota Vikings (24:50). Philadelphia Eagles (29:57). Detroit Lions and receivers (34:35). Denver Broncos (40:45). Houston Texans (45:05). Chicago Bears (48:28). His new book Football Analytics with Python and R (49:39).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Ohio State starts the season at #3 in the preseason AP poll. That might seem like a stretch after a 45-23 beat down to Michigan. Let's explore.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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It is easy for Michigan fans to dream this season. This episode look at their critical edge over Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State and whether it justifies their #2 rank in the preseason AP poll.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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In 2022, Sonny Dykes led TCU to the national championship game in his first season as the coach. With high expectations for 2023, let's look at how good fortune might have the Horned Frogs overrated.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Bob Stoll, founder of Dr. Bob Sports and legendary pioneer in using college football analytics for betting, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Math and art in his preseason model (2:35). What has and has not changed in 20 years of college football data (7:00). The impact of rule changes on totals (13:47). Middle Tennessee at Alabama (19:50). The random element in play differential (22:30). Georgia (29:18). Washington (34:05). Passing vs rushing in making predictions (39:48). Notre Dame vs Navy (43:22).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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The New York Jets are riding the hype train heading into the 2023 season. However, there are some warning signs about this team.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Accurate predictions of interceptions require looking beyond only plays in which the defense catches the ball. This episode concludes with a bet on New York Giants QB Daniel Jones.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Bud Elliott, a college football betting expert that also works for CBS Sports and 247Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How Bud uses recruiting in betting (3:50). Dealing with the transfer portal (13:32). Coordinator changes, pace and totals (16:38). Colorado (21:45). Turnovers and explosive plays (24:05). 3 college football futures bets (29:23). UCLA (31:40). Florida State (35:25). Clemson (40:25). Heisman betting (44:35). Surprise team in 2023 (53:58).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Bill Connelly, college football analytics expert and writer for ESPN, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The transfer portal in his preseason model (5:00). USC's defense (9:50). Penn State (16:45). Colorado and Deion Sanders (23:37). Michigan (29:39). Ohio State (33:18). Tennessee (37:49). Heisman trophy (44:00). Alabama (49:36). Conference realignment (53:13). Soccer (1:03:26).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

SharpClarke, an NFL originator, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How he goes from watching every snap to a betting model (8:57). What drives the NFL spread market (15:11). The benefits of a mobile QB (22:31). A week 1 NFL bet (24:25). Green Bay (36:32). A surprising prediction for the 2023 NFL season (41:50). Model building by decorrelation from the market (46:00).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Spanky, a professional sports bettor and creator of the Bet Bash conference, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The reason for the Bet Bash conference (2:28). The definition and origin of the term beard (5:00). Key events at Bet Bash 2023 (18:48). College football betting (27:06). Billy Walters (31:50). The state of the union in sports betting (35:55). Tricking DraftKings (42:05)

I also really enjoyed talking with Spanky about how he's a World Champion in board game Twilight Struggle (47:38).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

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Edward Egros, a professor at Pepperdine University and co-host of BetQL Daily, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His work at NFL Next Gen Stats and working on NFL broadcasts (3:15). Next Gen insights on running backs (14:29). Next Gen insights on wide receivers (18:47). MLB rule changes (26:22). Strike out props (32:00). Surprise prediction for the 2023 NFL season (44:00). Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks (50:26).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/