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The Football Analytics Show by The Power Rank and Ed Feng

The Football Analytics Show uses data and analytics to make predictions on games and break down match ups. The show covers both college football and the NFL.
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The Football Analytics Show by The Power Rank and Ed Feng
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Archives
Now displaying: Page 13
Sep 12, 2018

Josh Hermsmeyer, a data scientist and writer for FiveThirtyEight, joins me talk about his work on NFL passing analytics. He explains the concept of air yards and how the distance the ball travels in the air can lead to predictive stats. Josh also discusses his recent FiveThirtyEight article on how NFL offenses do not pass nearly enough. Finally, he gives us a value player for DFS and an NFL team prediction.

Sep 5, 2018

Kevin Cole, Director of Data and Analytics at RotoGrinders, joins the show to talk the 2018 NFL season. He tells us about his Bayesian model for projecting young quarterbacks and how it sees Jimmy Garappolo, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff. Kevin also gives predictions for DFS (a receiver to target) and the NFL (team that won't make the playoffs).

Aug 30, 2018

Sometimes, a college football team doesn't live up to the hype. Host Ed Feng uses the preseason AP poll as a benchmark for expectations, then employs a regression model to find 3 overrated teams for 2018.

Aug 19, 2018

Bill Connelly, college football analytics expert and writer at SB Nation, joins me to discuss the upcoming season. We talk about his study on explosive plays, which has implications for Michigan's defense and Stanford's offense. Bill then tells us how his preseason model works, and what it says about Miami and USC. We end with Bill's overrated and underrated team for 2018.

Aug 9, 2018

Aaron Schatz, founder of Football Outsiders and pioneer in football analytics, joins the show to discuss his predictions for the 2018 NFL season. He tells us why the defense in Cleveland and Indianapolis will be much better than anyone expects. We also get into projecting San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo based on a small sample size. Finally, Aaron reveals the secret to why Baltimore and New England might succeed this season.

Aug 2, 2018

Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game on VSIN, joins me for a wide ranging discussion on football analytics. He tells us story behind his Beating the Book podcast and how he weaves numbers into the show. Then we discuss the upcoming NFL season, including Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Cleveland among other teams. We end with Gill's movie recommendation that the analytics seem to like.

Jul 19, 2018

Will the Los Angeles Rams dominate after their free agent signings this off season? Will San Francisco burst into the playoffs with new QB Jimmy Garappolo? Will Cincinnati struggle again? Host Ed Feng harnesses the wisdom of crowds to get NFL preseason rankings and answer these questions.

Jun 12, 2018

Mike Goodman, soccer analytics writer at FiveThirtyEight and other major media outlets, joins me to talk about the World Cup. We begin by discussing the evolution of soccer analytics from goals to expected goals. Then he breaks down the top contenders to win the 2018 World Cup. Finally, he explains how expected goals casts doubt on the roster construction of Spain and Belgium.

May 22, 2018

David Purdum, writer for ESPN, joins me to discuss the Supreme Court decision that opens the door for states to allow sports betting.  We talk about how this impacts the NFL, the NCAA and online book makers.  David also offers his bold prediction that will result from legalizing sports betting.  To finish, we get into creativity lessons from musician Jack White.

Apr 25, 2018

To predict the 2018 NFL Draft, I take a wisdom of crowds approach and aggregate data from 25 mock drafts. Last year, this predictor was more accurate than all but one of the constituent mock drafts. In this episode, I discuss where the top quarterbacks go in the first round, who will take Saquon Barkley and possible improvements to the model.

Apr 19, 2018

NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund joins me in a wide ranging conversation. She talks about her video study on NFL linemen, the most difficult players to research. We discuss the Cleveland Browns, their problems and what they will do in the 2018 draft. She also tells us about Next Gen data and her new project for the 2018 season.

Apr 4, 2018

Colin Davy, director of data science at The Action Network, joins me to discuss sports analytics and predictions for the Masters. We start with the methods he has developed to rank tennis players and now applies to golf. Then Colin tells us whether a large or small playbook leads to better offense in football. Finally, we talk about the Masters, which includes the difficulty in predicting Tiger Woods and the one golfer to keep an eye on this weekend.

Mar 14, 2018

Adam Stanco, producer at the Pac-12 Network and hoops expert, joins me to talk March Madness. We focus the show on team that can win the 2018 tournament, as the choice of champion is the most important for winning your pool. This second part covers Michigan State, North Carolina, Kansas, Michigan and two other teams Adam finds intriguing.

Mar 13, 2018

Adam Stanco, producer at the Pac-12 Network and hoops expert, joins me to talk March Madness. We focus the show on teams that can win the 2018 tournament, as the choice of champion is the most important for winning your pool. This first part goes over Villanova, Virginia, Duke and Cincinnati.

Mar 8, 2018

Live by the three, die by the three.  The conventional wisdom says that teams that shoot a lot of three point shots have high variability in their performance.  This makes it difficult to win the NCAA tournament.  In 2014, I did some research that suggested 3 point shooting teams do not win the tournament.  However, college basketball has changed in the last 4 years, and we revisit this advice.

Feb 26, 2018

In this special episode, we tell the story behind predicting March Madness. The tournament might seem random, but there is a good reason for this public perception. In reality, the tournament is predictable in key ways, and this can help you win your March Madness pool. Join us on this journey from skeptic to winner.

Feb 6, 2018

Ken Pomeroy, a pioneer in college basketball analytics and founder of kenpom.com, joins me for a wide ranging discussion. He tells us how his college basketball rankings work, what aspects of 3 pointers a team controls on offense and defense, and how predicting the weather prepared him for college basketball.

Feb 2, 2018

In this 7 minute episode, Ed Feng previews the Super Bowl by comparing Philadelphia to recent team that played in the Super Bowl. In making this comparison, he digs into Philadelphia's pass numbers with QB Nick Foles, and New England's pass defense the latter part of the season.

Jan 29, 2018

Brian Burke, Senior Analytics Specialist at ESPN, joins me for a wide ranging football conversation. We discuss the 4th down study he did at his old site Advanced Football Analytics. He tells us how to project Jimmy Garappolo on a limited sample size and his prediction for the Super Bowl. We end with his favorite book and the value of reading the news.

Jan 17, 2018

Evan Silva, senior NFL editor at RotoWorld, joins me to discuss the analytics in breaking down the NFL conference championship games. He tells us about the one weakness in Jacksonville's defense that New England could exploit, as well as the change on Minnesota's offense last week that might impact the game at Philadelphia. After the interview, host Ed Feng tells the story of the unsung hero on Jacksonville's defense.

Jan 11, 2018

Professor Cade Massey of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania joins the show to talk NFL playoffs. We discuss the most predictive factor in the Massey-Peabody model, do a deep dive into Atlanta's defense, and how New England's defense excels in some ways yet fails in others.

Jan 4, 2018

John Ewing from Sports Insights and The Action Network joins me to talk football analytics. We discuss predictions for the NFL Wildcard Playoff games as well as two Super Bowl futures. Then we talk about the hidden factor that can affect the total in the college football championship game between Georgia and Alabama. After the interview, I talk about my spread prediction for this championship game and the inherent uncertainty in making predictions.

Dec 21, 2017

Dave Mason from BetOnline.ag joins me to talk about college football and the NFL. He tells us how his sports book sets market each week and the advantages of putting out lines before others. He talks about how NFL results have impacted his company this season and the importance of Bitcoin. After the interview, I tell a story that answers the question: what is sports analytics good for?

Dec 14, 2017

When host Ed Feng was doing his research on how to win your college football bowl pool, he realized the ideas also apply to NFL pick 'em pools. In this episode, he shows how to win your NFL pool this week by picking the winners in games and assigning confidence points. This is done through his analytics. Then he goes through his procedure for finding contrarian games for people in larger pools.

Dec 7, 2017

Ed Feng explains his quantitative research on college football bowl pools. Based on 4 years of data, he explains why there is value in entering bowl pools. He then explains which types of bowl pools to enter. You should avoid pools in which randomness decreases your win probability. Then you should consider using contrarian strategies, or fading the choices of the public. However, this only works in certain pools. Ed closes with a few market based NFL predictions for teams with quarterback injuries.

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