The preseason is the time for high expectations in college football. However, not all teams live up to the hype. Using analytics and context, host Ed Feng identifies 3 overrated college football teams for 2019.
Host Ed Feng goes through 5 games based on predictions he usually saves for paying members of The Power Rank, his site for more accurate football predictions. These predictions allow him to dig deeper into the Clemson Tigers, the Wisconsin Badgers and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Colts QB Andrew Luck shocked the football world by retiring this weekend. To determine the effect of his absence on Indianapolis, host Ed Feng uses his NFL preseason rankings based on market win totals.
While Oklahoma and Texas dominate the headlines, Iowa State might be the most intriguing team in the Big 12. Host Ed Feng breaks down QB Brock Purdy and the pass defense by using a little known fact about the official statistics. He ends by ranking the top 3 Big 12 teams by The Power Rank preseason model.
Seattle had a solid 10-6 season in 2018 and made the playoffs. However, the Seahawks have a serious problem. Host Ed Feng looks at their offense based on research on how running the ball sets up play action.
It's hard enough to win a division title in college football. It gets even harder when your team has the most difficult schedule. Based on division win probabilities, host Ed Feng identifies 3 college football teams getting screwed by the injustice of schedule.
Despite going down to Ohio State as the favorite last season, Michigan lost a heart breaking 62-39 game. Host Ed Feng explores the hidden side of the game based on modern football analytics. Then he projects whether Michigan can finally catch Ohio State in 2019.
NFL teams run the ball more when they're up late in games. So it makes sense that 100 yard rushers on winning teams get lots of their yards late in games. Host Ed Feng dug into the data to test this hypothesis.
Why preview a Nebraska team that went 4-8 last year? First, they were better than their record in 2018, and looking at their season shows us the perils of small sample size. Second, Nebraska has interesting upside for 2019.
Predictive analytics is a never ending game of distinguishing skill from luck. Ed Feng determines which statistics reflect the most skill for NFL quarterbacks by looking at how each statistic has evolved over time. This ends with a discussion of Derek Carr and Jared Goff.
Over the next two weeks, Ed Feng brings you 10 episodes of spoken word episodes to get you ready for the 2019 football season.
Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight joins me for a wide ranging conversation on the NFL. He tells us why he considers himself an analyst more than a data scientist. Then we get into play action and whether running it more times reduces its effectiveness. Finally, we discuss the 2019 prospects for Oakland, Chicago and Arizona.
Bill Connelly of ESPN joins me for a wide ranging conversation on college football. He tells us which parts of his preseason model gets broken down into offense and defense, and which doesn't. We discuss whether any team can catch Alabama and Clemson in 2019. Finally, Bill breaks down the contenders in the Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12. Our apologies, as the audio quality is not has high as usual due to technical difficulties.
Jim Sannes, senior writer and analyst at numberFire and FanDuel, joins me to talk the upcoming NFL season. We discuss how he ranks NFL offensive lines from 1 to 32. Then he tells us about an offensive line that isn't ranked well but has a high upside and could power a Super Bowl contender. Jim ends with a quarterback that could have a remarkable 2019 NFL season.
Gadoon Kyrollos, who goes by Spanky on Twitter, joins the show. He's a professional sports bettor who was recently profiled on The Ringer. We discuss his approach to sports betting and how sports books treat sharp bettors like himself. He also gives us a hilarious criteria for whether you're doing well as a sports bettor.
Host Ed Feng discusses his new sports betting podcast called Covering the Spread.
Evan Silva, formerly of RotoWorld, joins the show to talk predictive analytics. He begins by telling us why he's leaving RotoWorld to start his own site Establish the Run. Then we discuss the NFL team that might not win many games but you should consider for fantasy football. Finally, Evan gets into his 2 sleeper Super Bowl teams and ends with a value choice for NFL MVP.
Ed Miller, an MIT educated data scientist and writer, joins me to discuss his new book The Logic of Sports Betting. He tells us about his journey from the corporate world to poker to sports betting. Then we get into why parlays aren't necessarily bad bets, how sports books set the market and the key concept of a no hold market.
Professor Cade Massey of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania joins me to discuss the NFL draft. We talk about his research into how NFL teams overvalue the top draft picks. While this implies that teams should trade down for more picks, Cade offers revisions to this rule in light of the importance of the QB position. Cade's research focuses on judgment under uncertainty, and he tells us how NFL teams could learn from the system they use for Wharton admissions.
Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated joins the show to talk about his book Astroball. He tell us about convincing Houston Astros GM Jeff Luhnow to open up about his methods. Then he discusses the synergy that allowed the Astros to become one of the best at player projections. Finally, Ben tells us about the frontier in analytics that will keep the Astros ahead.
In this second of two episodes, Adam Stanco of the Pac-12 Network continues to educate us on college basketball national title contenders. We talk about Virginia and the key player that makes them a championship threat, no matter what happened last season. Then we get into Gonzaga's talent, both inside and outside. Finally, Adam reveals the team with more NBA talent than any team, even Duke.
Adam Stanco of the Pac-12 Network joins me to break down college basketball teams for the 2019 NCAA tournament. We get into Duke, with and without Zion Williamson, whether Michigan has enough offense to make a deep run, and whether Michigan or Michigan State has a higher ceiling.
Joe Peta, author of the books A 2019 Masters Preview and Trading Bases, joins me to discuss his recent work in golf analytics. He tells us about the Strokes Gained framework to evaluate players. Then he digs into his methodology for predicting the 2019 Masters. Finally, we discuss how variance plays a bigger role in golf than in team sports.
Four years ago in the Deflategate scandal, data suggested that New England might have deflated footballs to reduce their fumble rate. Host Ed Feng looks back at the real surprise in New England's turnover data. Then he updates the numbers to see if New England's performance on fumble has changed since then and how it might impact the Super Bowl against the Los Angeles Rams.
Chris Andrews, director of the South Point sports book, joins the show to discuss the Super Bowl. He talks about being aggressive as a bookmaker, with New England in the Super Bowl as an example. He also gives his view on Super Bowl props, analytics in bookmaking and putting out early college football win totals.