Bud Elliott, a college football betting expert that also works for CBS Sports and 247Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How Bud uses recruiting in betting (3:50). Dealing with the transfer portal (13:32). Coordinator changes, pace and totals (16:38). Colorado (21:45). Turnovers and explosive plays (24:05). 3 college football futures bets (29:23). UCLA (31:40). Florida State (35:25). Clemson (40:25). Heisman betting (44:35). Surprise team in 2023 (53:58).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Bill Connelly, college football analytics expert and writer for ESPN, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The transfer portal in his preseason model (5:00). USC's defense (9:50). Penn State (16:45). Colorado and Deion Sanders (23:37). Michigan (29:39). Ohio State (33:18). Tennessee (37:49). Heisman trophy (44:00). Alabama (49:36). Conference realignment (53:13). Soccer (1:03:26).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

SharpClarke, an NFL originator, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How he goes from watching every snap to a betting model (8:57). What drives the NFL spread market (15:11). The benefits of a mobile QB (22:31). A week 1 NFL bet (24:25). Green Bay (36:32). A surprising prediction for the 2023 NFL season (41:50). Model building by decorrelation from the market (46:00).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Spanky, a professional sports bettor and creator of the Bet Bash conference, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The reason for the Bet Bash conference (2:28). The definition and origin of the term beard (5:00). Key events at Bet Bash 2023 (18:48). College football betting (27:06). Billy Walters (31:50). The state of the union in sports betting (35:55). Tricking DraftKings (42:05)

I also really enjoyed talking with Spanky about how he's a World Champion in board game Twilight Struggle (47:38).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Edward Egros, a professor at Pepperdine University and co-host of BetQL Daily, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His work at NFL Next Gen Stats and working on NFL broadcasts (3:15). Next Gen insights on running backs (14:29). Next Gen insights on wide receivers (18:47). MLB rule changes (26:22). Strike out props (32:00). Surprise prediction for the 2023 NFL season (44:00). Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks (50:26).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Professor Adi Wyner of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania joins the show for a wide ranging conversations. He has a math degree from Yale University and PhD in Statistics from Stanford University. Highlights include: His first influence in sports analytics at Stanford (3:35). His opera singing career after graduate school (7:50). The optimal number of brackets to submit to a March Madness pool (12:53). Better baseball player projections (23:45).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Will Courchene, the founder of Data Golf, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: PGA, LIV merger (13:29). How the Data Golf predictions work (23:52). Top contenders to win the US Open (30:45). Scottie Scheffler and the randomness of putting (31:47). Brooks Koepka and the majors bump (35:30). The other golfer that excels at majors (42:10). Jon Rahm (47:10).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

How did professional bettors like Matthew Benham and Haralabos Voulgaris use analytics to win soccer matches? This episode discusses the key concept as told by Ryan O'Hanlon in his book Net Gains.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

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John Sears, a special advisor to the Los Angeles Dodgers, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. John has a graduate degree from Stanford and has also worked for the Philadelphia 76ers.

Highlights include: His first experience with applied math (7:48). Working at the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis (12:32). The decision to go to grad school (19:00). The latest baseball data sets that John and the Dodgers are hiring quants to work on (26:09). The 2015 NBA draft with Philadelphia (33:48). Working with the Minnesota Timberwolves and match up problems (45:18). How to break into sports analytics (52:09).

The story about the 2015 NBA draft is an incredible lesson in data driven predictions, and I highly recommend starting at 33:48 and listening to the next seven minutes.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

Interceptions play a critical role in football. However, randomness plays a big role, which makes these critical plays difficult to predict. This episode describes my research into how to predict interceptions. The narrative starts in football but then ventures into some ideas about skill vs luck from Michael Maubossian's book The Success Equation. Interceptions are also compared with three pointers in basketball.

Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and founder of Unexpected Points, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Are NFL teams getting smarter at drafting players? (3:00). Why it's harder to build a team (11:32). Houston and trading up for the 3rd pick (13:56). Arizona, trading down and trading back up (18:50). Why Philadelphia traded up one pick (22:00). Philadelphia and consensus big boards vs actual draft position (26:25). The problem with Jalen Carter, and it's not the legal issues (32:16). The teams with the best grades by Kevin's objective methods (34:55). How Kevin rates this QB class (38:17). A Will Levis comp (40:45). The teams with the worst draft grades (43:43). Detroit, their surprising draft grade and the NFC North market (48:55). How much does the draft matter in predicting the 2023 season? (57:25).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

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Matt Waldman, creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio and senior writer for Football Guys, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The wildly overrated 1st round QB in the 2023 NFL draft (11:38). Baker Mayfield (17:50). The QB that might seem overrated but isn't (21:10). Anthony Richardson's development (28:57). How NFL players develop skills (35:25). The difference between college and the NFL (39:40). Talent vs hard work (42:16). Mental aspect of playing wide receiver, Kenny Golladay, Gabriel Davis (52:36).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast and get a premium episode every month:

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Benjamin Robinson, who uses wisdom of crowds to predict the NFL draft at Grinding the Mocks, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: New research on predicting the NFL draft (6:56). NFL big boards (10:00). When to use wisdom of crowds to bet (15:00). Quarterbacks (19:50). The first pick (30:30). Defensive players (33:47). A surprise prediction (38:24).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast and get a premium solo episode every month:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

Jeff Haley, a PhD in Chemical Engineering from the University of Minnesota and the founder of hoop-math.com, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The data and insights on hoop-math.com (8:05). The future of college basketball data (13:52). The inspiration behind hoop-math.com (17:12). 3 point defense (19:58).

Jeff also broke down the 2023 Final Four teams: Connecticut (28:58). Miami (33:18). Florida Atlantic (37:19). San Diego State (42:54).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

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Support the podcast:

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The Region of Death is stacked with top teams in the 2023 NCAA tournament. In contrast, the Region of Eternal Life keeps giving poor teams an opportunity to advance. With help from analytics and the markets, Ed Feng breaks down the 2023 bracket.

You want to win your March Madness pool. The money is nice, but the bragging rights are even better. In this episode, I discuss three topics for the 2023 NCAA tournament: 1. The one thing you must get right to win, even before you use analytics (0:46) 2. Tennessee and their title chances (3:43) 3. How to predict March Madness upsets (6:54)

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

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Evan Miyakawa, a statistics Ph.D. and founder of the college basketball analytics site evanmiya.com, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His college basketball analytics for teams and players (12:11). Player level analytics with play by play data (19:50). Julian Phillips of Tennessee (24:00). Jaylen Clark of UCLA (26:45). Zakai Zeigler and Tennessee's chances without him (27:54). The use of preseason priors in March (34:22). Houston (38:56). Gonzaga (41:57). Connecticut (46:17). The public favorite (50:07).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

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Andy Molitor, the Director of Content at Betsperts, joins the show for a wide ranging conversations. Highlights include: His contrarian take on college basketball in March (4:28). His data driven process for betting college basketball (10:30). General outlook for the NCAA tournament (26:25). Purdue (29:14). Gonzaga (34:30). Can a defense get better in the NCAA tournament by sheer effort? (38:15). North Carolina (41:04). Alabama (47:22).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

On the surface, it seems like Jalen Hurts is better at not throwing interceptions than Patrick Mahomes. For the 2022 season, Hurts has thrown 6 picks compared to 12 for Mahomes.

However, randomness plays a big role in interceptions. This episode looks at the data behind this statement and reveals a better way to predict picks.

Finally, I look at the numbers for the two Super Bowl quarterbacks to reveal which team has an edge.

Hitman, a professional NFL bettor, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His evolution as a professional bettor (8:50). Getting bets down, then and now (12:12). His process for betting NFL spreads and totals (19:50). Super Bowl spread bet (27:57). His process for betting NFL player props (33:16). Two Super Bowl props he likes (36:30). More thoughts on the Super Bowl game script (41:34). Why he sells picks (46:07).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

Dr. Eric Eager, the Vice President of Research and Development at Sumer Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His transition from PFF to Sumer Sports (4:20). The problem with a football betting model (12:03). Tampa Bay (14:20). San Francisco at Philadelphia (17:38). Cincinnati at Kansas City (21:33). Overreaction to Cincinnati at Buffalo (26:17). The evolution of the Kansas City offense (28:09). The spread if Patrick Mahomes can't play (35:08). The role of luck in sports (47:08).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

Chris Bennett, the Director of Risk at Circa Sports Book, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His first stoke of luck in his career (10:35). How he got his start in bookmaking (11:30). His edge as a sports bettor (22:06). NFL bookmaking (27:31). The NFL limits at Circa, open and close (33:49). Do big groups wait to bet right before the game? (44:57). Analytics in bookmaking (49:31). Dallas at San Francisco (52:57). Jacksonville at Kansas City (57:53). New York Giants at Philadelphia (59:55). Cincinnati at Buffalo (1:01:58). Super Bowl futures and implied probability (1:04:55). Spread for Kansas vs Buffalo AFC Championship game (1:09:53).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and creator of the Unexpected Points newsletter and podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversion. Highlights include: Chicago Bears and the number one pick in the 2023 draft (5:21). Adjusting QB stats for teammates and Daniel Jones (15:03). Kevin's model for predicting spreads (23:50). Seattle at San Francisco (27:35). Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville (32:35). Miami at Buffalo (35:44). New York Giants at Minnesota (38:05). Baltimore at Cincinnati (40:25). Dallas at Tampa Bay (45:03). The favorite to make the Super Bowl from the AFC (49:23).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

Jim Sannes, senior writer/analyst at FanDuel and host of the Covering the Spread podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The predictive models that Jim uses in his handicapping (9:20). Philadelphia Eagles (15:39). A week 18 NFL bet (17:11). When models are way off market (20:24). His trick for finding NFL player prop bets (22:29). Detroit at Green Bay (26:55). Tennessee at Jacksonville (33:22). Tampa Bay at Atlanta, injury adjustments (36:40). A surprise prediction for the NFL playoffs (43:16).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics