Before getting into the two teams that could win the 2022 NCAA tournament, Edward Egros asks whether point guard play still matters. This leads into a breakdown of the top players for Arizona and Auburn.
The preseason AP poll is a surprising predictor of tournament success, and this episode looks at three top 10 teams from this poll. Duke has a load of NBA level talent, while Purdue thrives in one phase of the game but not the other. Finally, Kentucky is not the typical team that John Calipari puts together.
During the NCAA tournament Selection Show, Ed Feng and Edward Egros did a live stream. This episode of Bracket Wisdom captures three highlights from this conversation: 1. Illinois, Houston and whether injuries matter, 2. the second best team after Gonzaga, 3. two mid-major teams that thrive on offense and can win some games.
The only thing better than watching upsets in the NCAA tournament is predicting them. This episode first asks whether underdogs play at a slower pace or shoot more three pointers. Then the real reason that large underdogs in college basketball pull off the upset is revealed.
Points per possession is the gold standard for evaluating college basketball teams. However, you can sometimes do better than this standard by isolating one element with a lot of randomness. This episode uses Alabama and Kansas as examples of this extra edge in analyzing the 2022 NCAA tournament.
The Big 12 features three teams that could contend to win the NCAA tournament in 2022. This episode discusses:
In 2021, Gonzaga had their undefeated season foiled by Baylor in the national championship game. In 2022, Gonzaga will most likely be the top seed again, and this episode looks at their chances to win a championship.
Bracket Wisdom is a daily podcast series to help you win your March Madness pool. This first episode gives the top 3 tips for winning your pool. While the first two rely on analytics, the third focuses on strategy.
Ken Pomeroy joins the show to talk college basketball analytics and the 2022 NCAA tournament. He describes the methods behind his college basketball rankings at kenpom.com, and how this has changed over the past 20 years. Ken then talks about how he would select teams for the NCAA tournament. Finally, he breaks down the top 5 teams in his rankings: Gonzaga, Kentucky, Baylor, Arizona and Duke.
Alan Boston, the college basketball betting legend who was featured in the book The Odds, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. He says he doesn't use analytics, but his process suggests otherwise. Examples of this include home court advantage and using program history to rate teams. Alan also talks about why he doesn't seek closing line value. During the discussion, he breaks down Gonzaga, Arizona, Kentucky and Baylor among other teams capable of winning the 2022 NCAA tournament.
Spanky, a professional sports bettor, joins the show to talk about his craft. He describes his top down approach to sports betting and how his goal is closing line value (CLV). In particular, he discusses whether CLV mattered in the NFL during the 2021 season, and whether CLV is different as the season approaches the Super Bowl. Spanky also evaluates sports betting in the United States, and how it might be changing for the better. Finally, he discusses the key to starting new projects like the Bet Bash conference and the Be Better Bettors podcast.
JJ Zachariason, founder of Late Round Fantasy Football and formerly of FanDuel, joins the show for a wide ranging NFL conversation. He describes his journey from an ebook to FanDuel to working for himself at LateRound.com. Then he breaks down the Super Bowl between the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams, and offers a bet on the game. Finally, JJ provides his reasoning behind two Super Bowl props.
Colin Davy, a Jeopardy champion through analytics and former director of data science at The Action Network, joins the show to talk about finding sports betting value. His Betscope tool aggregates data to find the best markets on a single game. In addition, the tool allows you to act on your beliefs by changing certain input parameters. Colin also discusses the analytics behind player props and how this impacts Super Bowl props.
Gill Alexander, the host of A Numbers Game on VSIN and the Beating the Book podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging NFL conversation. He first describes the debate between those who follow analytics and those who hate it, and which side is winning 2022. Then he breaks down the two conference championship games:
The conversation also touches on the New Orleans Saints, the Washington Football Team (Gill's team), and the future of sports betting.
Fabian Sommer, a football analyst who uses analytics and data in his handicapping, joins the show to discuss the NFL Divisional Playoffs. First, he describes the variety of metrics he uses in evaluating match ups in NFL games. He also discusses closing line value and the curious case of Philadelphia. Then he breaks down the NFL Divisional Playoffs, which includes:
We end with a great discussion of books.
John Sheeran, the Director of Trading at FanDuel Sportsbook, joins the show to discuss the NFL. First, John discusses the Chargers vs Raiders game that could have ended in a tie and how FanDuel uses an analytics based model to help set the market. Then, John breaks down these Wild Card games:
Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight joins the show to discuss the NFL before the 2022 playoffs. He talks about his prime Super Bowl contenders and the metrics that he uses to evaluate them. The discussion also touches on NFL quarterbacks such as Josh Allen, Carson Wentz, and Justin Herbert (one is getting lucky, one needs to throw deep more). Josh also talks about a new metric for pass rushers and whether he would re-sign Baker Mayfield. The conversation ends with a great discussion of meat.
Josh Hancher of Dawg Sports Live joins the show to discuss the college football playoff semi-final game between Georgia vs Michigan. He provides a look at the Georgia program under Kirby Smart, and host Ed Feng chimes in with the similarities and differences with Michigan. Josh breaks down the quarterbacks in this game and in particular what to expect from Georgia. There is one QB statistic that seems to favor Michigan but actually favors Georgia. This episode also includes The Power Rank's prediction for this game and a potential final between Georgia and Alabama.
Collin Wilson, senior writer at The Action Network, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. After describing how he left software consulting for college football media, Collin talks about how his college football ratings work. Then he discusses a number of college football bowl games, including Alabama vs Cincinnati, Georgia vs Michigan and Arkansas vs Penn State. Finally, Collin gives three bets with value.
Parker Fleming, a football analyst that goes by @statsowar on Twitter, joins the show for a wide ranging discussion. He describes how his predictive college football model works, and what his predictions say about the college football playoff semi-final games: Michigan vs Georgia and Alabama vs Cincinnati. Then Parker talks about two other bowl games with value. Finally, he provides details about Gary Patterson's departure from TCU.
Kevin Cole, Senior Data Scientist at PFF, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. We start with a discussion of New England's strategy against Buffalo to end week 13. Then Kevin describes his new NFL model for predicting spreads and the metrics that go into this model. This leads him into a bet he likes for week 14. Kevin also describes his NFL QB rankings based on Bayesian updating. During the conversation, Kevin also provides his insights on Baker Mayfield, home field advantage, the Cardinals, the Rams and Jalen Hurts.
Mike Craig, a professional sports bettor, joins the show to talk about his trade. He describes how he makes college football predictions based on data, and he gives predictions for Alabama vs Georgia, Michigan vs Iowa and other games. Then he talks about how he bets the NFL without coming up with his own math model. Finally, Mike talks about college basketball betting and how he manages the immense number of games.
Neil Greenberg, sports writer for the Washington Post, joins the show to talk about NFL analytics and betting. After describing the unique way in which his job at the Post was created, Neil describes the statistics he uses to understand the NFL. Then he gives two week 11 games he has bet and discusses Buffalo, San Francisco, Indianapolis and Philadelphia among other teams.
Tony Miller, Director of the Sportsbook at the Golden Nugget, joins the show to talk about bookmaking. He starts with some great stories of meeting Dean Martin and Frank Sinatra when he started working in the industry in the 1980's. Tony then describes setting the line at the Golden Nugget, and how this involves pencil and paper power ratings across all sports. He talks about two NFL games in which his spread differs from market consensus. Finally, Tony gives two other NFL games with value.
Edward Egros, a professor at SMU and Pepperdine, joins the show to talk about predictive football analytics. He describes how his model works for college football and the NFL but why betting the two levels of football is much different. Edward reacts to the first college football playoff rankings before giving a bet he likes. For the NFL, he discusses Packers at Chiefs and the impact of the absence of Aaron Rodgers. Edward also talks about Titans at Rams and an NFL bet he likes.