Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow struggled with sacks last season, including a nine sack game against Tennessee. But is his pocket presence that bad? If it is, does this mean he will fumble more?
In this fifth and final episode of the 2022 Preview Series, Ed Feng sheds light on these questions through data. To check out the full list of NFL QB pressure rates, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/2022/09/01/preview-5-joe-burrow-sacks-and-predicting-fumbles/
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
Support the podcast:
How do you find value betting on the Heisman? Edward Egros explains his top tips before identifying a number of dark horse candidates.
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
It seems like Georgia rode an elite defense to a 2021 national championship over Alabama. However, QB Stetson Bennett IV was phenomenal, as Edward Egros discusses in this third episode of the 2022 Preview Series.
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get a sample of the free sports betting newsletter, one that discusses Stetson Bennett, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/2022/08/22/the-one-thing-to-know-about-heisman-betting/
Support the podcast:
It might seem crazy to use preseason results to predict the NFL regular season. However, studies have shown that the NBA preseason is predictive of the games that matter.
In this second episode of the 2022 Preview Series, Edward Egros asks whether the NFL preseason is predictive and what other insights we can get from these games.
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
Support the podcast:
Since 2015, Ed Feng has gone 12 of 18 in picking overrated college football teams in the preseason AP poll. This episode reveals his three overrated teams for 2022 and his process behind the selections.
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
Support the podcast:
Fabian Sommer, a well respect NFL bettor, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Why he only bets the NFL and the benefits of this focus (2:21). Moving from picks to only betting (8:56). His quantitative and qualitative preparation for the 2022 season (13:45). Kansas City and their 2021 adjustments (21:32). Las Vegas and the offense of Josh McDaniels (27:59). Minnesota and Kevin O'Connell (31:50). Miami and Mike McDaniel (37:02). Dallas (39:41). Jacksonville and Doug Pederson (46:33).
Among these points, Fabian also discussed two win total bets he likes.
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
Captain Jack Andrews, professional sports bettor and founder of Unabated, joins the podcast for a wide ranging conversion. Highlights include: An early example of a sports betting edge (5:15). The difficulty in finding a good book maker (8:13). Analytics and book making (14:19). Educating sports bettors (23:09). Betting NFL football (33:37). Top down versus bottom up approaches to betting (40:12). The bright future for sharp sports bettors (49:46). How exchanges work (55:06). How to get casino comps (1:08:11).
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
The first 20 supporters of The Football Analytics Show get the Establish the Pass mug. To support the podcast on Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
Bill Connelly, writer for ESPN and college football analytics expert, joins the show for a wide ranging discussion. Highlights include: Conference realignment and the future of college football (4:20). Ohio State and the defense (14:34). Alabama and the transfer portal (24:26). Georgia and replacing 5 first round NFL draft picks on defense (31:55). The N teams that could be 4th in the nation (36:22). Dark horse Heisman candidates (44:05). Simple advice on college football win totals (49:14). USC WR Jordan Addison (52:05). European club soccer (54:44).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
JJ Zachariason of Late Round Fantasy Football joins the show to discuss predictive player analytics. JJ is the leading expert at season long NFL player projections. Highlights include: The importance of supply and demand in your fantasy football draft (6:26). The supply of wide receivers (14:30). Value and why fantasy football drafts are like betting (17:58). The model JJ uses to project NFL player statistics (31:45). Regression and how to use it to your advantage (39:55). Stefon Diggs and Buffalo Bills offense (45:10). Two surprise NFL teams (48:36).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Dr. Nick Wan, the Director of Analytics for the Cincinnati Reds, joins the show for a wide ranging discussion. Nick got into baseball after earning his Ph.D. in neuroscience from Utah State. Highlights include: How an early sports analytics project made the front page of the New York Times (4:52). His tasks as Director of Analytics for a MLB team (10:35). How baseball as evolved from event to process based metrics (13:21). The frontier of player development analytics (16:58). The prospects for the Cincinnati Reds (24:55). Analytics for KFC, the fast food company (32:17). Creativity in sports analytics, and the role of logic (44:11).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Pass rushers get paid to sack the quarterback. However, sack rate is not the best metric to evaluate pass rushers. In 2021, Von Miller, Robert Quinn and T.J. Watt showed the utility of pressure rate in evaluating edge rushers. For pass blockers, pressure rate allowed is not as good a metric. This episode describes a better way to evaluate offensive linemen.
Doug Kezirian, ESPN sports betting analyst and host of Daily Wager, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How a Los Angeles guys arrived at ESPN in Las Vegas through Missouri and Iowa (2:45). Live basketball betting (15:26). NFL betting (31:30). Saints, Packers, Chiefs (38:21). Sports books and limiting sharps (46:43). Doug's big win on the 2021 NFL draft (56:51).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to the idea that predictive analytics is a crucial part of sports betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
To gauge NFL off season moves, let's look at the most important metrics for receivers and coverage players. This episode makes the case for yards per route run on offense, and suggests the symmetric quantity for coverage players. The predictability of these metrics and players like Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and Casey Hayward Jr. are also discussed.
Mark Scalley and Mike Craig, two professional sports betting partners, join the show to talk about getting accounts. Highlights include: Starting a partnership in 2009 (4:20). Getting accounts in 2009 (9:00). Getting accounts in 2022 (16:50, 44:44). The key to sports betting relationships (26:07). Is Twitter a good thing for sports betting? (36:00). Getting limited at sports books (46:54). Origination and why no one discussed it at Bet Bash (55:31).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Matt Courchene, the co-creator of Data Golf with his brother Will, joins the show to talk about predictive golf analytics. Matt describes how his tournament predictions work. This includes player ratings based on strokes gained as well as a more granular approach that separates a golfer's skill into off the tee, putting, etc. Matt describes his research into which of these shots are more predictive. Finally, Matt gives his thoughts on the 2022 U.S. Open at the Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts.
Kostya Medvedovsky joins the show to discuss DARKO, a well respected NBA player projection system. He begins with how a lawyer developed the data and math skills to develop DARKO. Then Kostya describes the two predictive systems that form the basis of DARKO, one of which was initially used in rocket science. Then he talks about how machine learning techniques combine these two factors. He uses Brandon Ingram of the New Orleans Pelicans as an example of how the system works. Finally, Kostya discusses the applications of DARKO to sports betting.
Matt Metcalf, the sports book director at Circa sports, describes his journey from sports book to professional bettor to the sports book at Circa. Matt takes us inside his head as he adjusts his college football ratings based on game results. This is the work that allows Circa to open the first college football spreads and totals on Sunday. He contrasts booking college football with the NFL. Matt also describes the role of analytics in his work, why Circa welcomes sharp sports bettor and the one thing he would change in the industry.
Matt Waldman, creator of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (RSP), joins the show to talk about the 2022 NFL draft. He describes his year long process for watching film and evaluating hundreds of college players in creating the RSP. Matt talks about how Dak Prescott and others have helped him improve his process. While others talk about the intangibles for a player, Matt has a very specific definition for the It factor. He relates this It factor to improvisation music. The markets have Malik Willis as the favorite to be the top QB selected in the 2022 NFL draft, but Matt explains why he differs from this consensus.
Drew Dinsick, a sports bettor and co-host of NBC's Bet the Edge podcast, joins the show to talk about professional football and basketball. He describes how the NFL draft market has changed this year and a few bets that he likes. Drew talks about the top players at edge rusher and quarterback. Then Drew gets into his process for betting the NBA, which includes data from the markets and player performance models. He also has some fascinating insights into predicting totals in basketball.
Dr. Eric Eager, Head of Research, Development and Strategy at PFF, joins the show to discuss the NFL and the 2022 draft in particular. He talks about how he approaches betting the NFL draft from multiple perspectives. Then Eric breaks down the scenarios for the top three teams to pick: Jacksonville, Detroit and Houston. He also gives a few of his favorite bets on the 2022 NFL draft. Finally, we dig into NFL free agency season, and Eric describes the team he finds the most intriguing over the next few seasons.
Matthew Freedman, the Director of Content at FantasyPros and BettingPros, joins the show to talk about betting the NFL draft. Matthew talks about the primary tool that he uses to make bets and the best time to use this tool. He also encourages you to change your position when new information becomes available, and he provides examples from 2021. Finally, Matthew talks about his NFL draft bets for 2022.
George Chahrouri of PFF joins the show to break down NFL free agency. The conversation begins with quarterbacks, which includes Deshaun Watson to the Cleveland Browns and Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. George then decides whether the Miami Dolphins in Tyreek Hill or the Las Vegas Raiders in Davante Adams got a better wide receiver. Finally, George identifies three NFL teams that had a great free agency campaign.
This episode has Sweet 16 predictions usually saved for paying members of The Power Rank. Ed Feng also adds his analysis on three games: Arizona vs Houston, Purdue vs St. Peter's and Kansas vs Providence.
While the NCAA tournament selection committee has gotten better over the years, they made some seeding mistakes this year. Ed Feng identifies the reason for these mistakes before identifying the most difficult region, the easiest region, and the team with a very kind path.