The Region of Death is stacked with top teams in the 2023 NCAA tournament. In contrast, the Region of Eternal Life keeps giving poor teams an opportunity to advance. With help from analytics and the markets, Ed Feng breaks down the 2023 bracket.
You want to win your March Madness pool. The money is nice, but the bragging rights are even better. In this episode, I discuss three topics for the 2023 NCAA tournament: 1. The one thing you must get right to win, even before you use analytics (0:46) 2. Tennessee and their title chances (3:43) 3. How to predict March Madness upsets (6:54)
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
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Evan Miyakawa, a statistics Ph.D. and founder of the college basketball analytics site evanmiya.com, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His college basketball analytics for teams and players (12:11). Player level analytics with play by play data (19:50). Julian Phillips of Tennessee (24:00). Jaylen Clark of UCLA (26:45). Zakai Zeigler and Tennessee's chances without him (27:54). The use of preseason priors in March (34:22). Houston (38:56). Gonzaga (41:57). Connecticut (46:17). The public favorite (50:07).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
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Andy Molitor, the Director of Content at Betsperts, joins the show for a wide ranging conversations. Highlights include: His contrarian take on college basketball in March (4:28). His data driven process for betting college basketball (10:30). General outlook for the NCAA tournament (26:25). Purdue (29:14). Gonzaga (34:30). Can a defense get better in the NCAA tournament by sheer effort? (38:15). North Carolina (41:04). Alabama (47:22).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
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On the surface, it seems like Jalen Hurts is better at not throwing interceptions than Patrick Mahomes. For the 2022 season, Hurts has thrown 6 picks compared to 12 for Mahomes.
However, randomness plays a big role in interceptions. This episode looks at the data behind this statement and reveals a better way to predict picks.
Finally, I look at the numbers for the two Super Bowl quarterbacks to reveal which team has an edge.
Hitman, a professional NFL bettor, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His evolution as a professional bettor (8:50). Getting bets down, then and now (12:12). His process for betting NFL spreads and totals (19:50). Super Bowl spread bet (27:57). His process for betting NFL player props (33:16). Two Super Bowl props he likes (36:30). More thoughts on the Super Bowl game script (41:34). Why he sells picks (46:07).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
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Support the podcast:
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Dr. Eric Eager, the Vice President of Research and Development at Sumer Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His transition from PFF to Sumer Sports (4:20). The problem with a football betting model (12:03). Tampa Bay (14:20). San Francisco at Philadelphia (17:38). Cincinnati at Kansas City (21:33). Overreaction to Cincinnati at Buffalo (26:17). The evolution of the Kansas City offense (28:09). The spread if Patrick Mahomes can't play (35:08). The role of luck in sports (47:08).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
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Support the podcast:
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Chris Bennett, the Director of Risk at Circa Sports Book, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His first stoke of luck in his career (10:35). How he got his start in bookmaking (11:30). His edge as a sports bettor (22:06). NFL bookmaking (27:31). The NFL limits at Circa, open and close (33:49). Do big groups wait to bet right before the game? (44:57). Analytics in bookmaking (49:31). Dallas at San Francisco (52:57). Jacksonville at Kansas City (57:53). New York Giants at Philadelphia (59:55). Cincinnati at Buffalo (1:01:58). Super Bowl futures and implied probability (1:04:55). Spread for Kansas vs Buffalo AFC Championship game (1:09:53).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
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Support the podcast:
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Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and creator of the Unexpected Points newsletter and podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversion. Highlights include: Chicago Bears and the number one pick in the 2023 draft (5:21). Adjusting QB stats for teammates and Daniel Jones (15:03). Kevin's model for predicting spreads (23:50). Seattle at San Francisco (27:35). Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville (32:35). Miami at Buffalo (35:44). New York Giants at Minnesota (38:05). Baltimore at Cincinnati (40:25). Dallas at Tampa Bay (45:03). The favorite to make the Super Bowl from the AFC (49:23).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Support the podcast:
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Jim Sannes, senior writer/analyst at FanDuel and host of the Covering the Spread podcast, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The predictive models that Jim uses in his handicapping (9:20). Philadelphia Eagles (15:39). A week 18 NFL bet (17:11). When models are way off market (20:24). His trick for finding NFL player prop bets (22:29). Detroit at Green Bay (26:55). Tennessee at Jacksonville (33:22). Tampa Bay at Atlanta, injury adjustments (36:40). A surprise prediction for the NFL playoffs (43:16).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
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Support the podcast:
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Matt Landes, host of the Props and Hops podcast and VSIN NFL correspondent, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How Matt got hooked on sports betting and started Props and Hops (7:40). His handicapping process (14:25). A less well known NFL analyst/bettor to follow (21:27). A NFL week 16 bet (25:56). Why Matt likes teasers (31:48). Philadelphia at Dallas (41:08). Green Bay at Miami (46:10). A surprising prediction for the remainder of the NFL season (50:21). A great story on the late David Malinsky (1:09:20).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
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Support the podcast:
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You want to win your bowl pool. But do you have the strategies to optimize your chances? This episode digs into three essential topics: 1. The value in bowl pools, 2. The type of pool to enter, 3. Contrarian strategies, which are necessary for certain types of pools.
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
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Support the podcast:
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Ted Knutson, the CEO of StatsBomb who has also worked a professional bettor and book maker, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Magic the Gathering as an entry into the betting world (6:06). How to improve yourself (11:24). Ted's process as a professional bettor (14:23). Working at Pinnacle sports book (17:20). The soccer market at Pinnacle (23:52). From betting to soccer data and analytics (26:41). The xG model of StatsBomb (33:10). Set pieces in soccer (36:12). World Cup 2022 (40:52). American football data and analytics (43:23).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
Ben Brown, the Head of Betting Innovation at PFF, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: New PFF football technology Ben is working on (15:35). Ben's football betting process (20:20). Special teams analytics (26:40). A college football bet for championship week (31:28). TCU vs Kansas State (34:25). Green Bay at Chicago (39:22). Kansas City at Cincinnati (42:00).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
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Support the podcast:
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Matt Freedman, the director of content at FantasyPros and BettingPros, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The hilarious way his fantasy football career got started (4:38). Matt's NFL model and handicapping process (12:56). Are NFL power ratings useful? (19:19). NFL home advantage (24:27). A Week 11 NFL bet on Chicago at Atlanta (28:02). Dallas at Minnesota (32:24). Detroit at New York Giants (36:20). San Francisco vs Arizona and QB injury adjustments (39:00). A surprising prediction for the rest of the NFL season (44:06).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
Ryan O'Hanlon of ESPN joins the show for a wide ranging conversation on soccer, analytics and the World Cup. Highlights include: The evolution of soccer analytics over the past decade (5:54). His new book Net Gains (14:00). The optimal way to play soccer (19:25). The World Cup favorite (32:26). A World Cup dark horse to win (41:08). USMNT (45:43). The critical concept of xG (54:04).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Support the podcast:
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Edward Golden, the founder of Right Angle Sports (RAS), joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. RAS is one of the only pick selling services with a long term track record of winning and honesty.
Highlights include: How Edward built up RAS (7:15). His approach to handicapping sports (15:00). A week 9 NFL bet he likes (16:40). College basketball betting (20:58). How to run a picks service so that customers can get down (27:30). How he balances betting with the service (32:13). How the betting world has changed with legalization in the US (39:30).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
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Support the podcast:
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For week 9 of the 2022 NFL season, there is a new patron only episode that digs into my research on NFL metrics and uses this to break down Green Bay and Tampa Bay.
Adam Chernoff of Right Angle Sports (RAS), who has had many roles in the sports betting world, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His "book making" start in the Caribbean (3:13). Betting tennis as a professional (17:58). Moving to RAS (23:55). The information and data he uses to handicap the NFL (29:14). How he uses Sports Info Solutions data to analyze defense (34:17). Sports betting and content (36:17). A week 8 NFL bet (42:00). Pittsburgh Steelers (47:09). Tampa Bay Buccaneers (49:58). Green Bay Packers (54:55).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
Parker Fleming, a college football analytics expert for BetUS and The Hammer, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How Parker's college football model works (2:48). TCU and their big game against Kansas State (14:27). Michigan (25:58). The nightmare playoff scenario (31:22). A college football bet for week 8 (33:30). Syracuse at Clemson (36:00). A surprising college football prediction for 2022 (39:00).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
Clevta, a quantitative NFL bettor, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How TA applied his finance background to the NFL (5:48). NFL analytics (21:15). His NFL betting process (29:32). A week 6 NFL bet (33:45). Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense (38:14). Ohio State, the defense and CJ Stroud (41:39).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
Mike Craig, a long time professional sports bettor who also works with Right Angle Sports (RAS), joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His decision to join RAS this college football season (2:39). How RAS comes up with their college football plays (5:44). His process, both objective and subjective, for betting college football (20:40). An example of adjustments based on TCU at Oklahoma in week 5 (26:57). TCU at Kansas (34:49). A college football bet for week 6 (37:21). A college football team to bet the under (40:40). Michigan State (42:29). Advice for a new, ambitious bettor (48:34).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
Chris Andrews, director of the sports book at the South Point, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The art of bookmaking (2:24). How square sports books do not practice the art of bookmaking (13:10). North Carolina State at Clemson (19:38). The difference between college football versus NFL (23:00). Michigan at Iowa (28:00). Denver at Las Vegas (31:56). Kansas City at Tampa Bay (36:24). A surprise prediction for the 2022 NFL season (42:20). His book Then One Year (44:45). A surprise book announcement (49:27).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
Eddie Walls, a professional sports bettor who also works with Right Angle Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His intense process for making college football bets (8:20). The relative importance of position groups (11:47). College football resources that Eddie uses (15:55). Making adjustments on teams during the season (21:10). A week 4 college football bet (28:50). Michigan, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas (30:00). Tennessee, Auburn and betting the SEC (34:45). A surprising prediction for the 2022 college football season (41:22). The milk shake story (45:06).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
Rob Pizzola, pro NFL bettor and founder The Hammer, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The Mount Rushmore of bad NFL coaching by Denver's Nathaniel Hackett (2:39). Why he started the new sports betting content company The Hammer (12:00). Rob's process for betting the NFL in 2022 (23:45). A week 2 NFL bet (30:47). Cincinnati Bengals (37:42). New York Giants (40:57). New England Patriots (45:41). The worst team in the NFL (49:30). A very surprising prediction for the 2022 NFL season (52:21).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
https://thepowerrank.com/
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics
Dr. Eric Eager, the head of Research and Development at PFF, joins the podcast for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Is there a demand for smart sports betting content? (4:50). Uniqueness of scheme, principle component analysis and finding value in the markets (12:39). Two week 1 NFL bets (22:50). Los Angeles Chargers (26:33). Pittsburgh Steelers and whether Mike Tomlin is a good coach (27:50). Philadelphia Eagles (32:37). Tampa Bay Buccaneers (37:30). Jacksonville Jaguars (44:15). Georgia, Ohio State (47:17).
The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:
Support the podcast:
https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics