As an analytics person, you know better than to judge based on a small sample size. But do you know why this is so difficult?

This episode digs into the cognitive science behind your tenuous relationship with randomness. I hope it feels like a short audiobook, but not boring.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

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Tanner Buzick, the Director of Analytics at Dr. Bob Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His quantitative approach to betting the NFL (6:24). Carolina at Seattle (13:22). Nick Chubb, Tennessee at Cleveland (21:40). A surprise prediction and bet for the 2023 NFL season (26:20). Advice for breaking into the betting world (29:20).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Mike Craig, a professional sports bettor who also works with Right Angle Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How to get into sports betting in 2023 (5:35). Handicapping college football (8:02). FBS vs FCS games and whether they matter in handicapping (14:42). A college football bet (20:18). Colorado (23:02). Penn State at Illinois (33:12). A surprising prediction for the 2023 season (38:18). A team to fade (44:03). The state of sports betting (48:18).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Before the 2022 season, Dan Hanzus of NFL.com had Denver 8th in his power rankings. The Broncos finished the season 5-12.

I used his opinion in my best NFL predictions last year. Even in hindsight, I don't regret it. Let me explain in this episode.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

How to bet the Buffalo Bills in 2023, courtesy of the brilliant software tools at Unabated. The concept of a no hold market plays a critical role in the analysis.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Adam Chernoff of Right Angle Sports joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How the NFL preseason impacts his analysis (5:22). Houston Texans (9:00). Las Vegas Raiders (12:15). The Right Angle Sports NFL team (15:05). NFL props (19:17). Week 1 teaser bet (24:55). Atlanta Falcons and total football (28:30). Arizona Cardinals (38:42). Dallas Cowboys (42:10). The Simple Handicap daily podcast (51:44).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Dr. Eric Eager, Vice President at Sumer Sports and football analytics expert, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Offensive line as a weak link system (5:00). Green Bay Packers (12:04). NFL preseason models (13:53). Buffalo Bills and run pass option (19:22). Minnesota Vikings (24:50). Philadelphia Eagles (29:57). Detroit Lions and receivers (34:35). Denver Broncos (40:45). Houston Texans (45:05). Chicago Bears (48:28). His new book Football Analytics with Python and R (49:39).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Ohio State starts the season at #3 in the preseason AP poll. That might seem like a stretch after a 45-23 beat down to Michigan. Let's explore.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

It is easy for Michigan fans to dream this season. This episode look at their critical edge over Georgia, Alabama and Ohio State and whether it justifies their #2 rank in the preseason AP poll.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

In 2022, Sonny Dykes led TCU to the national championship game in his first season as the coach. With high expectations for 2023, let's look at how good fortune might have the Horned Frogs overrated.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Bob Stoll, founder of Dr. Bob Sports and legendary pioneer in using college football analytics for betting, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Math and art in his preseason model (2:35). What has and has not changed in 20 years of college football data (7:00). The impact of rule changes on totals (13:47). Middle Tennessee at Alabama (19:50). The random element in play differential (22:30). Georgia (29:18). Washington (34:05). Passing vs rushing in making predictions (39:48). Notre Dame vs Navy (43:22).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

The New York Jets are riding the hype train heading into the 2023 season. However, there are some warning signs about this team.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Accurate predictions of interceptions require looking beyond only plays in which the defense catches the ball. This episode concludes with a bet on New York Giants QB Daniel Jones.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Bud Elliott, a college football betting expert that also works for CBS Sports and 247Sports, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How Bud uses recruiting in betting (3:50). Dealing with the transfer portal (13:32). Coordinator changes, pace and totals (16:38). Colorado (21:45). Turnovers and explosive plays (24:05). 3 college football futures bets (29:23). UCLA (31:40). Florida State (35:25). Clemson (40:25). Heisman betting (44:35). Surprise team in 2023 (53:58).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Bill Connelly, college football analytics expert and writer for ESPN, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The transfer portal in his preseason model (5:00). USC's defense (9:50). Penn State (16:45). Colorado and Deion Sanders (23:37). Michigan (29:39). Ohio State (33:18). Tennessee (37:49). Heisman trophy (44:00). Alabama (49:36). Conference realignment (53:13). Soccer (1:03:26).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

SharpClarke, an NFL originator, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: How he goes from watching every snap to a betting model (8:57). What drives the NFL spread market (15:11). The benefits of a mobile QB (22:31). A week 1 NFL bet (24:25). Green Bay (36:32). A surprising prediction for the 2023 NFL season (41:50). Model building by decorrelation from the market (46:00).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get 5-Nugget Saturday, a curated list of bets and analytics, sign up for the free newsletter here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Spanky, a professional sports bettor and creator of the Bet Bash conference, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: The reason for the Bet Bash conference (2:28). The definition and origin of the term beard (5:00). Key events at Bet Bash 2023 (18:48). College football betting (27:06). Billy Walters (31:50). The state of the union in sports betting (35:55). Tricking DraftKings (42:05)

I also really enjoyed talking with Spanky about how he's a World Champion in board game Twilight Struggle (47:38).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Edward Egros, a professor at Pepperdine University and co-host of BetQL Daily, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: His work at NFL Next Gen Stats and working on NFL broadcasts (3:15). Next Gen insights on running backs (14:29). Next Gen insights on wide receivers (18:47). MLB rule changes (26:22). Strike out props (32:00). Surprise prediction for the 2023 NFL season (44:00). Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks (50:26).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Professor Adi Wyner of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania joins the show for a wide ranging conversations. He has a math degree from Yale University and PhD in Statistics from Stanford University. Highlights include: His first influence in sports analytics at Stanford (3:35). His opera singing career after graduate school (7:50). The optimal number of brackets to submit to a March Madness pool (12:53). Better baseball player projections (23:45).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Will Courchene, the founder of Data Golf, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: PGA, LIV merger (13:29). How the Data Golf predictions work (23:52). Top contenders to win the US Open (30:45). Scottie Scheffler and the randomness of putting (31:47). Brooks Koepka and the majors bump (35:30). The other golfer that excels at majors (42:10). Jon Rahm (47:10).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

How did professional bettors like Matthew Benham and Haralabos Voulgaris use analytics to win soccer matches? This episode discusses the key concept as told by Ryan O'Hanlon in his book Net Gains.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

John Sears, a special advisor to the Los Angeles Dodgers, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. John has a graduate degree from Stanford and has also worked for the Philadelphia 76ers.

Highlights include: His first experience with applied math (7:48). Working at the Federal Reserve during the financial crisis (12:32). The decision to go to grad school (19:00). The latest baseball data sets that John and the Dodgers are hiring quants to work on (26:09). The 2015 NBA draft with Philadelphia (33:48). Working with the Minnesota Timberwolves and match up problems (45:18). How to break into sports analytics (52:09).

The story about the 2015 NBA draft is an incredible lesson in data driven predictions, and I highly recommend starting at 33:48 and listening to the next seven minutes.

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics

Interceptions play a critical role in football. However, randomness plays a big role, which makes these critical plays difficult to predict. This episode describes my research into how to predict interceptions. The narrative starts in football but then ventures into some ideas about skill vs luck from Michael Maubossian's book The Success Equation. Interceptions are also compared with three pointers in basketball.

Kevin Cole, football analytics expert and founder of Unexpected Points, joins the show for a wide ranging conversation. Highlights include: Are NFL teams getting smarter at drafting players? (3:00). Why it's harder to build a team (11:32). Houston and trading up for the 3rd pick (13:56). Arizona, trading down and trading back up (18:50). Why Philadelphia traded up one pick (22:00). Philadelphia and consensus big boards vs actual draft position (26:25). The problem with Jalen Carter, and it's not the legal issues (32:16). The teams with the best grades by Kevin's objective methods (34:55). How Kevin rates this QB class (38:17). A Will Levis comp (40:45). The teams with the worst draft grades (43:43). Detroit, their surprising draft grade and the NFC North market (48:55). How much does the draft matter in predicting the 2023 season? (57:25).

The Football Analytics Show is presented by The Power Rank, a site devoted to predictive analytics for football betting. To get the free sports betting newsletter, click here:

https://thepowerrank.com/

Support the podcast:

https://www.patreon.com/footballanalytics